A Trafalgar Group survey released on the eve of Election Day showed President Trump holding a lead in battleground Pennsylvania.
The survey showed Trump leading Biden by 1.9 percent in the Keystone State, garnering 47.8 percent to Joe Biden’s 45.9 percent:
New @trafalgar_group #2020Election #BattlegroundState #PApoll conducted 10/30-31 shows Trump maintaining a narrow lead &a few more unsure before Election Day:
1.4 % @Jorgensen4POTUS,
3.7% Und. Report: https://t.co/an9wtOvn0m pic.twitter.com/rhB4COVvEO
— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) November 2, 2020
All eyes are on the Trafalgar Group and chief pollster Robert Cahaly following the firm’s predictions in the 2016 race, accurately anticipating a Trump victory in both Pennsyvlania and Michigan. Tom Bevan, co-founder and president of RealClearPolitics (RCP), has lauded the firm, referring to it as “one of the most accurate polling operations in America” during the last two election cycles.
A snapshot of Monday’s RealClearPolitics average showed Biden up 4.2 percent in Pennsylvania. In 2016, the final RCP average showed Hillary Clinton up 2.1 percent. Trump ultimately took the state by 0.7 percent.
“People are going to be shocked,” Cahaly told Politico. “A lot of people are going to vote this year who have been dormant or low-propensity voters. I think it’s going to be at an all-time high.”
“The models of who’s going to turn out this year are very flawed,” he continued, emphasizing the existence of the “hidden” Trump voter.
“What type of person comes out for Trump? They’re not a normal election participant. They’re a low-propensity voter. We included them in all of our surveys in fall 2016, and we are including them now,” he said.
The survey follows reports of increased angst among Democrats, who fear a “potential late shift” toward Trump in the state. Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) is among those who voiced concern, posting a photo of the tens of thousands of supporters who flocked to President Trump’s rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, over the weekend.
“The President is popular in PA. I don’t care what polls say. With 700K ballots still out there, you need to BANK YOUR BALLOT. Use a Dropbox. Get them in,” he pleaded, adding that the photo of the crowd is “not MAGA propaganda.”
“Can’t fake a crowd like that. But you *can* make sure you show up and get every vote in. Every Vote Matters,” he added. “Get Them In”:
The President is popular in PA.
I don’t care what polls say.
With 700K ballots still out there, you need to BANK YOUR BALLOT.
Use a Dropbox.
Get them in. https://t.co/YANdwqbdYG
— John Fetterman (@JohnFetterman) October 31, 2020
That’s not photoshop. That’s a @Reuters image of Butler.
The Battle for Pennsylvania, and maybe the Presidency will be won or lost by you. pic.twitter.com/u3xvRvc7KS
— John Fetterman (@JohnFetterman) November 1, 2020
President Trump is slated to hold a rally in Scranton, Pennsylvania, Tuesday afternoon. It will be his second stop of the day, following a campaign rally in Fayetteville, North Carolina.
The president will also hold a rallies in Traverse City, Michigan; Kenosha, Wisconsin; and Grand Rapids, Michigan later in the day.